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1. Introduction 2. Fundamentals of Moldova’s Pension Legislation 3. The Present-Day Demographic Setting 4. Demographic Trends in the Economic Activity of the Population 6. Payers of Pension Contributions 7. Recipients of Pensions/Benefits 8. Present-Day Macroeconomic Environment 9. Software Complex 10. Approbation of the Model Annex 1. Base scenario
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Development of the Analytical Model of the Republic of Moldova’s Pension System
9.4. Macroeconomics BlockMacroeconomics Block of the “Analytical Model of the Pension System of the Republic of Moldova” is intended for projecting the amount of an average wage. The model provides for two main methods of such projection. According to the first method real rates of wage growth are determined by setting the share of an annual wage-bill (WB) in GDP, as well as the annual rate of productivity growth into the following equation: , where WageGrowth – real rate of wage growth; Productivity – rate of productivity growth; WBShare – share of an annual wage-bill (WB) in GDP; y – year of the projection. According to the second method real rates of wage growth are determined by setting rates of productivity growth and values of excess of wage growth rates over productivity growth rates into the following equation: , where UnProd – excess of wage growth rates over productivity growth rates. Besides wages the model also makes projections of a number of macroeconomic parameters being of importance for the pension system. They are listed in the chart of input/output indices of the macroeconomics block, as depicted in Fig. 9.6. Fig. 9.6: Chart of input/output parameters of the Macroeconomics Block Besides the average wage the “Pension Calculator” also makes projections of a wage received by a particular person. Projection of the average wage by means of the “Pension Calculator” is made in a simplified manner as compared with the main model, i.e. by setting real rates of wage growth as constant throughout the entire time interval. Individual wage is projected in relation to the average wage, in this way an individual income is being varied in the “Pension Calculator” |
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Independent Actuarial Information-Analitical Center |