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Legislation Publications Pension models About project Statistics
Legislation Publications Pension models About project Statistics

1. Introduction

2. Fundamentals of Moldova’s Pension Legislation
2.1. General Principles
2.2. Insurance Contributions and the Tax Base
2.3. Types of Pensions and Terms and Conditions of Their Assignment
2.3.1. Old-age Pensions
2.3.2. Invalidity Pensions
2.3.3. Survivor’s Pensions
2.3.4. Pensions to Specific Categories of Population
2.3.5. Social Pensions/Benefits
2.3.6. Pensions Paid at the Account of the State Budget
2.4. The Minimal Pension and Guaranteed Minimum
2.5. Pension Indexing

3. The Present-Day Demographic Setting
3.1. General Population Changes
3.2. Fertility
3.3. Mortality and Life Expectancy
3.4. Population Growth and Migration
3.5. The Base Demographic Forecast

4. Demographic Trends in the Economic Activity of the Population
4.1. Demographic Factors Affecting the Number of Population at the Economically Active Age
4.2. The Profiles and Dynamics of the Economic Activity of the Population
4.3. Projection Scenarios for the Economic Activity of the Population

5. General Employment Issues

6. Payers of Pension Contributions
6.1. The Profile and Number of Pension Contribution Payers
6.2. Projection Scenarios for Insurance Contribution Payers

7. Recipients of Pensions/Benefits
7.1. Profile of Pension Recipients
7.2. Old-Age Pensioners
7.3. Invalidity Pensioners
7.4. Recipients of Pensions for Survivors
7.5. Recipients of Social Pensions/Benefits
7.6. Forecast of Pensioner Numbers

8. Present-Day Macroeconomic Environment
8.1. Historical Background
8.2. Base Macroeconomic Forecast

9. Software Complex
9.1. Mission and Structure of the Software
9.2. Computation Scenario Block
9.3. Demography Block
9.4. Macroeconomics Block
9.5. Receipts Block (Calculation of Contributions)
9.6. Expenditure Block
9.7. Output and Reports

10. Approbation of the Model
10.1. Modelling Scenarios
10.2. Simulation Output
10.3. Computations on the Pension Calculator

Annex 1. Base scenario




Development of the Analytical Model of the Republic of Moldova’s Pension System

9.4. Macroeconomics Block

Macroeconomics Block of the “Analytical Model of the Pension System of the Republic of Moldova” is intended for projecting the amount of an average wage.

The model provides for two main methods of such projection. According to the first method real rates of wage growth are determined by setting the share of an annual wage-bill (WB) in GDP, as well as the annual rate of productivity growth into the following equation:

,

where

WageGrowth – real rate of wage growth;

Productivity – rate of productivity growth;

WBShare – share of an annual wage-bill (WB) in GDP;

y – year of the projection.

According to the second method real rates of wage growth are determined by setting rates of productivity growth and values of excess of wage growth rates over productivity growth rates into the following equation:

,

where

UnProd – excess of wage growth rates over productivity growth rates.

Besides wages the model also makes projections of a number of macroeconomic parameters being of importance for the pension system. They are listed in the chart of input/output indices of the macroeconomics block, as depicted in Fig. 9.6.

Fig. 9.6: Chart of input/output parameters of the Macroeconomics Block

Besides the average wage the “Pension Calculator” also makes projections of a wage received by a particular person. Projection of the average wage by means of the “Pension Calculator” is made in a simplified manner as compared with the main model, i.e. by setting real rates of wage growth as constant throughout the entire time interval. Individual wage is projected in relation to the average wage, in this way an individual income is being varied in the “Pension Calculator”


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